Brian Shields forecasts rain and wind across Europe
The source's own title: Giant Atlantic System will have big Impacts for Europe...
In his 7 November outlook, the meteorologist highlights flood risks in Portugal and Spain as a persistent Atlantic low feeds repeated rain.
Video
- Said here alone: 20
What it says
- A large Atlantic circulation is expected to persist through the working week following 7 November 2026, sending repeated disturbances into Europe as dominant high pressure weakens. Coastal Ireland, Portugal, Spain and France could experience gusts around 80 km/h. Rainfall is forecast to exceed average across several southern and western European countries, especially Portugal and Spain. Rain begins spreading into Iberia and toward France, the Alps and Italy Sunday night into Monday, with further significant Iberian rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain chances subsequently increase across the British Isles, northern continental Europe and parts of eastern Europe, although the eastern totals are expected to be lower. Temperatures generally hold steady, with maritime air bringing some mildness and limiting snowfall, including at some higher elevations. Snow remains possible in the Alps, Iceland and Scandinavia. The greatest concern is rainfall of 100–200 mm in parts of Portugal and Spain, potentially including rapid bursts exceeding 100 mm. People in flood-prone locations should be prepared to move to higher ground.
- Rain is forecast to push into Portugal and Spain and toward France, Switzerland, the Alps and Italy especially Sunday night, 8 November, into Monday, 9 November 2026. u14 ·
- Portugal and Spain are forecast to receive further significant rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday, 10–11 November 2026, on top of rain from the preceding days. u16 ·
- Rain is forecast to begin filtering into Denmark, the Netherlands and Germany on Wednesday, 11 November 2026, while continuing around Ireland and the UK. u20 · The spoken forecast specifies Wednesday; the accompanying still displays a Thursday model timestamp.
- The snowfall outlook through 16 November includes some totals above 20 cm, with Norway particularly highlighted for heavy batches of snow and rain. u28–29 · The 20 cm figure applies to some forecast locations, not to Norway or the other named countries as a whole.
- Isolated locations in the UK and Ireland could receive approximately 75–100 mm of rain in the five-day forecast. u30 · The accompanying forecast map supplies the millimeter units and five-day accumulation period.
- Parts of Portugal and Spain are forecast to receive 100–200 mm of rain, with heavier bursts potentially delivering more than 100 mm in a short period. u32–33 · These figures occur in the five-day precipitation discussion; Shields specifies that the Iberian precipitation is rain, not snow.
- Some locations in central Italy could approach 100 mm of precipitation as moisture builds around the middle of the week. u35 · The amount is given within the precipitation-total discussion, which includes a caveat that some precipitation falls as snow.
- Coastal locations in Ireland, Portugal, Spain and France are forecast to experience wind gusts upwards of 80 km/h at times during the prolonged Atlantic storm pattern. u36 · The forecast concerns gusts, not sustained wind speeds.
- People in flood-prone parts of Portugal and Spain should be prepared to seek another location or higher ground during substantially heavy rainfall. u34 · The advice is directed at people living near places that could take on water during the forecast heavy rain.
- Maritime air feeding into Europe around the Atlantic circulation favors above-average temperatures, particularly across the Mediterranean. u9 · The storm's moisture supply does not imply a widespread cold-air outbreak.
- The Atlantic circulation repeatedly sends disturbances into Europe like spokes on a wheel, drawing in additional moisture and sustaining heavy rain as the week progresses. u11–12 · Repeated disturbances explain why rainfall continues rather than ending after one front passes.
- A large Atlantic circulation is forecast to maintain an active European storm pattern through the end of the working week following 7 November 2026, rather than passing through as a single brief event. u4–6 ·
- Above-average rain is forecast into the coming working week and next weekend in parts of Croatia, Italy, Switzerland, France, Portugal and Spain, with the largest departures in Portugal and Spain. u8 ·
- Europe's rain pattern is forecast to become more widespread as high pressure breaks down, but eastern areas are expected to receive less rain than the western areas closest to the Atlantic circulation. u24–25 ·
- Portugal and Spain face the principal heavy-rainfall threat, especially from Madrid westward, with flash flooding forecast to be likely and potentially life-threatening. u32–34 ·
- European temperatures are expected to remain broadly steady over the next several days, without a major cold outbreak or massive warmup. u37–38 ·
- More moisture brings opportunities for Alpine snowfall, but the warmer-than-usual air mass limits snow, including some higher-terrain snowfall. u28 · Snow remains in the outlook for Austria, Switzerland, Italy and parts of France, despite the temperature limitation.
- The precipitation-total maps express all precipitation as liquid, so large totals in Norway and Iceland should not be read entirely as rainfall. u30–32 · Elevation and location determine whether northern precipitation falls as rain or snow.
- A persistent Atlantic storm circulation will bring prolonged wind and repeated heavy rainfall to Europe, with the most serious flash-flood threat focused on Portugal and Spain. How will the persistent Atlantic storm circulation affect Europe's wind, rainfall, flooding, temperatures and snow through the coming week?
How it argues
- thesis Persistent Atlantic storms threaten Europe, especially Iberia with flooding How will the persistent Atlantic storm circulation affect Europe's wind, rainfall, flooding, temperatures and snow through the coming week?
- theme A sustained storm pattern The Atlantic circulation repeatedly feeds disturbances into Europe, prolonging stormy weather and strong coastal winds.
- theme Rain spreads unevenly across Europe Rain becomes more widespread as high pressure weakens, but western Europe receives the greatest amounts.
- idea Rain spreads eastward but remains heavier westward
- idea Liquid-equivalent precipitation maps include snow, not just rain
- theme Iberia faces the greatest flood danger Repeated heavy rainfall threatens potentially life-threatening flash flooding in Portugal and Spain, requiring readiness to move to safety.
- theme Mild air limits snowfall opportunities Temperatures remain broadly steady and often above average, limiting snowfall despite plentiful moisture.
The source, passage by passage
- u1 It's Saturday, the 7th of November, 2026. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields. The big storm pattern is back. A giant spin over the next several days is going to stick around. This is going to be a big wind maker for days and days. Plus, it's going to produce for some of us significant rainfall in that concern for some serious flash flooding out of this.
0:01 · Weather presenter beside globe radar map: Storm Pattern Arrives · A video still shows a man in a checked button-up shirt standing in front of a large screen, gesturing with one hand and holding a small clicker in the other. The screen displays a globe centered on the North Atlantic and Europe with radar-style precipitation in green, yellow and red. A banner at top right reads "STORM PATTERN ARRIVES", and an orange hurricane-style logo sits at bottom right. - u2 We'll take a look how this ties into the snow outlook and the outlook overall as we go throughout the rest of the week. So, thank you for being here, Mr. Weatherman Europe. We have lots to cover with this little wrinkle to the pattern. Look at this change. Previous videos, we've talked about high pressure, that spinning control, some of that ridging around, if you will, with a dominant area of high pressure.
0:22 · Muddy brown floodwater rushing past rocks · A close-up video still shows fast-moving, turbulent water the color of tan and brown mud, with churning waves and foam. Dark rocks sit at the upper left and a gray rock at the upper right edge. The sediment-heavy color and rough surface suggest a flood or swollen river. 0:32 · Weather presenter in front of Europe precipitation forecast model · A video still shows a man in a checked shirt standing before a large screen with a globe centered on Europe and the North Atlantic. The map overlays a forecast model in green, yellow and red, where red marks the heaviest values. Bands of heavy activity appear over the Atlantic, the British Isles' west, Scandinavia and eastern Europe. A timestamp reads Model: 7/11/2026 Saturday 15:00. - u3 But here, we get this spin. Now, different countries, different governments will give this different names. So, you're hearing of a name system. It's this spin here. But the point is we get kind of a break in that ridge and we see more of this southern piece of this jetream really cranking up over the next few days.
- u4 So we're going to have this spin out there for days and days just rotating in pieces of energy and it looks to get even more active back toward the west. We'll be tracking that as we work our way forward. Now look how this spin sticks around right right here by the Azors. Here it is.
1:05 · Jet Stream Tracker forecast map over North Atlantic and Europe · A video still shows a presenter in a checkered shirt standing beside a large screen with a "Jet Stream Tracker" map of the North Atlantic and Europe. Jet stream speeds are color-coded from green (weaker) through yellow to red (strongest). Two strong red-yellow cores appear: one off the northeast North American coast and one over Norway and Sweden. A weaker green band runs across Iberia and northwest Africa. - u5 Here we are in the Canary Islands, Portugal, Spain. Days and days from today, working our way forward all the way through the middle and even end of the week. Still some sort of a spin sitting here. That is that giant spin. This is going to be so very impactful. You see it for yourself.
- u6 It's not just one little piece that moves in for days and days just rotating around. So, especially coastal areas, we're going to for days have some of those winds that will be gusting to about 80 kilometers per hour through the weekend and then also right into next week. So, kind of a a prolonged event with this.
1:38 · Future winds forecast over Europe and North Atlantic · A video still shows a man in a checkered shirt standing beside a large screen with a "Future Winds" model map of the North Atlantic and Europe, dated 12/11/2026 Thursday 15:00. Strong winds (magenta/purple, about 56–80 km/h) cover the Atlantic west of Ireland, the UK, Portugal and Iceland. Much of continental Europe is calmer. A colour legend maps speeds from 24 to 200 km/h. - u7 Now, what does it do for rainfall? And again, a lot of us as we still come off of summertime and we're now marching our way through autumn, we're still dealing with those drought conditions in many spots. Well, southern areas that better chance of rain and this really ties into some of the previous outlooks we've been talking about, that moisture kind of feeding in off of the Mediterranean and where you see these greens and some of these blues.
2:11 · ECMWF 7-day precipitation anomaly forecast for Europe · A video still shows a presenter pointing at a screen with an ECMWF extended ensemble map of Europe. It shows the 7-day precipitation anomaly in mm, initialized 6 Nov 2026 and valid to 16 Nov 2026. Green marks wetter-than-normal areas and brown marks drier-than-normal areas. The strongest wet anomalies, in blue, are over Iberia (Spain and Portugal), northern Italy, and the western Balkans. Much of the British Isles and parts of central and eastern Europe are drier. - u8 So anywhere from say Croatia, Italy, pick your spot, uh parts of Switzerland, France, Portugal, Spain, uh we're going to see above average rain into the upcoming working week into next weekend, but significantly above average Portugal and Spain. We're going to have some huge totals and we'll be tracking that as we go ahead.
- u9 Now, as far as temperatures go, some of this kind of not tropical air mass this time of year, uh but just kind of that maritime air mass, I should say, with this spin out there still feeding that in. So, we're going to be a little bit warmer than average, especially across the Mediterranean. Some spots, Norway, as we know, uh, watching back toward Poland running below average with some of those temperatures.
2:44 · ECMWF temperature outlook map for Europe, week of 9 November 2026 · A still from a weather video shows a presenter pointing at a large screen with an ECMWF extended-range map of 2m temperature anomalies across Europe for 9–16 Nov 2026. Warmer-than-normal anomalies (orange to red) cover eastern and southern Europe, strongest in the far northeast of the map. Cooler-than-normal areas (blue) appear over Iceland, the UK, Scandinavia's southwest coast, Poland and the Black Sea and Turkey region. - u10 Scotland and Iceland running below average through the working week into next week. We'll cover the temperatures in just a second. Those for many of us are going to be holding. But watch what happens here. And I want to zoom down, which is very important in this video. So, thank you for your patience. High pressure has been in control. As we go through the day, we're watching this this circulation that's just sitting out there.
- u11 and it will be sitting there for days, but then you kind of like spokes on a wheel. You get these pieces of energy that move in this a couple days from now. So, this here Monday, and we start to see the pattern breaking down. High pressure still over Ukraine, Poland, and Romania. Uh, but we get these waves of energy moving in.
3:17 · Weather presenter at Europe forecast model map · A man in a checked shirt stands beside a large screen showing a globe-style radar forecast map of Europe and the North Atlantic, labeled "Future Weather" with a model time of Monday 9/11/2026 15:00. He reaches toward Scandinavia while green, yellow and red rain bands appear west of Portugal and Ireland, near the Azores and Canary Islands, and over parts of Iberia. - u12 But note that, if you could kind of make it out, like I showed you on that wind map, still rotating around. We'll be still seeing this spin near Ireland and France for days and days. and that continues to pivot in rain, but a lot of this will be heavy. There's that rotation right there drawing in even more moisture, heavy rain, flooding rain as we get deeper into the week.
- u13 So, we'll see this shifting from the west off toward the east. Even more active. Germany, for example, by Thursday, we're going to get a better chance of rain. So, let's go area by area. Do my best not to leave anyone out. If I don't mention you, uh it's not because I'm not meaning to. We're just kind of going around here. Let's get into tomorrow.
3:50 · Weather presenter explaining Europe future-weather rain forecast map · A video still shows a man in a checked shirt gesturing toward a large screen with a globe-style map of Europe and the North Atlantic. Radar-style rain is shown in green, yellow and red over Spain, Italy, Germany, the UK, Ireland and Scandinavia. The label says it is a model forecast for Thursday 12/11/2026 at 15:00. - u14 The big spin starting to be felt. We'll get the gusty winds as I mentioned. Some of those winds will be gusting upwards of 80 km/h. But the rain starts to drive in especially Sunday night into Monday. Portugal, Spain, moving toward parts of France. Get over towards Switzerland, back toward the Alps, Italy included.
- u15 Some higher terrain snow. We're going to start to get that with more moisture moving in. But again, this air mass warmer than usual. So that's going to limit some of the snow. High elevation snow will do. Okay. Then as we go throughout the week, this is Tuesday working across. You see it there, but more spokes, more pieces of energy moving in.
4:23 · Future weather rain forecast map of Western Europe · A video still shows a large screen with a "Future Weather" model map of Western Europe and the Mediterranean, dated 10/11/2026 Tuesday 03:00. Green areas mark precipitation, and yellow, orange and red cores mark heavier rain. The heaviest cells sit over central Spain near Madrid. More rain covers France, the Alps, northern Italy and the Atlantic. A man stands at the left edge of the frame, partly visible and pointing toward the screen. - u16 Look at that. Portugal, Spain right there. Tuesday into Wednesday, significant rainfall. And that's on top of what we're going to have over the next couple of days. I'll show you these totals. They are very high. High concerns of intense flooding, flash flooding, parts of Portugal and Spain. Please get that word out.
- u17 And then as we go forward into Thursday, that moisture feeding across the islands, lifting up to the north as this spin gets closer. It's still kind of rotating around. uh just off toward the west of France right here filtering in even more moisture.
4:56 · Weather forecaster presenting rain forecast map of Western Europe · A still from a weather video shows a man in a checked shirt gesturing at a large screen labeled "Future Weather". The map covers Western and Southern Europe with green rain areas and yellow, orange and red patches of heavier precipitation. A white arrow runs from North Africa past Mallorca and Sardinia toward northern Italy, with the heaviest rain near Monaco, Marseille and northern Italy. - u18 So again, subscribe or don't subscribe, but this flood threat is substantial. Portugal and Spain, please get the word out. I appreciate you just dropping this in group chats. Hey, uh we've got a significant event that is going to be moving in. We'll cover that in just a moment. Let me take you around. Uh trying to cover everyone. Norway, uh Sweden, here's Iceland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, France.
- u19 Uh we've had high pressure and control. Estonia, Lapia, Lithuania, Sweden, Finland. that's going to be sliding off toward the east. And you see how this energy starts to move in. Let me stop it here. This on Tuesday. Tuesday, we get a better chance of rain. Northern Ireland, Ireland, parts of Wales. Watching over toward England.
5:29 · Weather forecaster presenting Europe future-weather model map · A man in a checked shirt stands beside a large screen showing a satellite-style map of northern Europe with a forecast-radar overlay. The header reads "FUTURE WEATHER, Model: 9/11/2026 Monday 15:00". Green, yellow and orange precipitation bands lie over the Norwegian Sea, north of Scotland, west of the British Isles and in the far northeast. A white curved band runs along the Norwegian coast, and the man gestures toward the North Sea and UK area. - u20 We'll see if this rain kind of moves in. Again, a lot of us still dealing with the drought conditions, but we'll get that better chance as the week goes on from Tuesday into Wednesday. Wednesday, Denmark, the Netherlands, Germany will start to get some of that rain filtering in. Here's that spin still around. Still that rain over toward Ireland in the UK.
6:02 · Future weather rain forecast map of Northern Europe · A video still shows a presenter's hand pointing at a large screen with a forecast radar map of Northern Europe, labelled "Future Weather", model for Thursday 12/11/2026 at 15:00. Green rain areas, with yellow and red patches marking heavier precipitation, cover the British Isles, western France, Germany, the Baltic states, Belarus and the Atlantic west of Ireland. Scandinavia and Russia are mostly dry. - u21 Norway, of course, we've been getting hit hard. I've been watching your comments for whatever reason, a good reason. Get a lot of comments from Norway on this channel. Thank you for giving me those updates. Uh, but you see how this progresses across Germany, Poland, back toward Bellarus, Lithuania, Lavia, Estonia.
- u22 As the week goes on, high pressure breaks down in this action moves in for more of us. Deeper into the week, it working week. It only gets more active. Now, let's get to the south. I covered this. If I'm blocking this, it's not intentional. I showed you this area. I want to swing more to the uh east just to cover everyone.
- u23 This here is Monday. See some of the showers in Greece, Montenegro. Here's Turkey. Here's Bulgaria. Just naming a couple spots. And you see how it progresses like up north by we the time we get into midweek and deeper into the week, we get more rain. Slovakia, even some snow mixing in Poland, some of that rain.
6:35 · Future weather radar model map of Europe · A still from a weather video shows a large screen with a forecast precipitation map of Europe and the Mediterranean, labeled "Future Weather, Model: 9/11/2026 Monday 15:00". Green and yellow rain patches lie over the Atlantic west of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, western France, the Alps and Switzerland, and Greece. A presenter's arm and hand reach toward the Atlantic rain band at the left edge. - u24 Hungary moving moving toward Romania, Muldova, Ukraine, more active Tuesday into Wednesday getting some rain. Here's that flooding rain parts of Portugal and Spain by the time we get into uh Wednesday and Thursday and then it just kind of feeds in lifting up to the north. Luxembourg, Switzerland, Austria, we're going to see periods of rain and even some higher terrain snow at times and then kind of shifting up to the north.
7:08 · Europe future-weather radar forecast with presenter, 12/11/2026 · A video still shows a man in a checked shirt standing beside a large screen with a forecast radar map of Europe. The label reads "Future Weather, Model: 12/11/2026 Thursday 15:00". Green rain bands with yellow, orange and red cores are heaviest over the western Mediterranean near Corsica and Sardinia and northern Italy. More rain shows over Germany, the Low Countries, Ireland and the UK, and over Belarus. - u25 So, not quite as much as we work our way off toward the uh east, but we will see some rounds of rain. But again, the focus to the west because that's where that spin is just sitting. Now, temperatures, this is going to be a broad brush, right? Uh I'm not seeing a big difference over the next two days.
- u26 So kind of where you are right now is generally where we're going to be. Yes, there'll be some dips in spots. Some spots as I mentioned a little bit warmer. You see some of that warmth Monday starting to build in a little bit more with that maritime flow coming in off the water. Portugal, Spain, and France.
7:41 · Temperature Tracker forecast map of Europe and North Africa · A video still shows a man in a checked shirt standing beside a large screen with a "Temperature Tracker" model map centered on Europe, North Africa and western Asia. The map is dated Monday 9/11/2026 at 15:00. Warm yellow, orange and red colors cover North Africa, Iberia and the Mediterranean. Cooler blue and purple colors cover central and northern Europe, and pink and red colors cover Russia. He gestures toward Morocco. - u27 So it'll be a little bit milder with some of those numbers. But for the most part over the next several days, I'm not seeing any big piece of the jetream dipping down. So again, generally holding steady and we'll highlight more of those kind of longer term colder outbreaks in upcoming videos.
- u28 You know, I'm always looking ahead at kind of what's uh next, but we have the storminess moving in now. Now, the temperatures running above average in the sector that does limit some of the snow, even some of the higher terrain snow. This is the snow outlook as we work our way uh through the 16. So, watching over toward the Alps, Austria, Switzerland, and Italy for some of that snow parts of France, Iceland.
8:14 · ECMWF 7-day snow forecast map for Europe through 16 Nov · A video still shows a presenter gesturing at a large screen with an ECMWF extended ensemble map of forecast 7-day snowfall over Europe, initialized 00z 6 Nov 2026. Heavy snow (purple/pink, about 20–50 cm) is forecast over the Norwegian mountains, the far north Atlantic and northern Russia. Most of western and central Europe stays snow-free, apart from the Alps and small patches in the Caucasus region. - u29 You could see some of these totals uh 20 plus centimeters. And again, Norway, even parts of Sweden, uh but Norway in particular, just with everything just kind of flowing in at us, we get some heavy rain and some heavy batches of snow. I'll be watching your comments as we work our way forward. Now, these important uh rain totals.
- u30 Now, this is if everything is liquid, right? So, some of these areas there's going to be some snow mixed in. Not here. This is rain. But with that rain working in, especially in a couple days, we could get some isolated areas in parts of the UK and Ireland, maybe pushing 75 to 100.
8:47 · 5-day rain totals forecast map for UK, Ireland, Europe · A weather presenter in a checked shirt stands at left, pointing at a large screen showing a color-coded map of 5-day rainfall totals over Ireland, the UK and northwestern Europe. The heaviest totals, about 75–100 mm (3–4"), appear over the Irish Sea near Dublin and over the Atlantic southwest of Ireland. Most of Britain and continental Europe show lighter amounts, mostly trace to 25 mm. - u31 That is going to be a possibility. A few spots upwards of of 100, 100 plus back through Norway, but as I mentioned, of course, some of this is snow. So, this is uh yes, we could get some rain totals of of 200. Uh but we should get some snow mixing in, of course, across the higher terrain.
- u32 And as we lift in latitude, same thing in Iceland. rain, snow, uh depending on exactly uh elevation and location. Now, this is huge concern. Portugal, Spain, and I mentioned just getting the word out about this, that spin is going to be out there for days, and it looks like the focus is going to be right over Portugal and Spain, especially Madrid back toward the west.
9:20 · Five-day rain totals forecast map for Europe · A video still shows a large screen with a weather map of northern and central Europe titled "5 Day Rain Totals". Colors from blue to purple, pink, red and yellow mark rainfall from trace amounts up to 250 mm (10"). The heaviest-looking bands, in purple and magenta, lie over the Atlantic west of Ireland and the UK, Iceland, parts of England and Scotland, and Finland. A presenter's hand points at the map's left side. - u33 And look at these colors. And there's no snow involved here. Uh we're talking about the whites, the blacks, and the reds. So, anywhere from 100 to 200. And a lot of this could come in a short period of time. Now, for days and days, we stay active. Uh, but then we'll get some heavier batches at times where we could get a quick 100 plus.
- u34 Flash flooding will be a likelihood in this area and even some of that life-threatening. So, if you live near an area that could take on some water when you get some substantially heavy rain, please be prepared to seek a different location or higher ground. Not easy, as I know, but the best thing is to just get the word out, the awareness with weather.
- u35 As you know, uh, you're part of this great community. Uh awareness is the key with the weather. Now, as we go forward, of course, some of this will be some of the snow and then at times as the moisture builds, especially by the middle of the week, watching parts of Italy, maybe over toward Bosnia, Croatia, uh but parts of Italy, we central Italy, we could get some spots pressing about 100.
- u36 So, really active storm pattern with this giant spin that is going to be sitting around all the way through the end of the upcoming working week. So, the storm pattern definitely cranking up. Gusty winds. I mentioned if you're along the coast, uh picking a spot, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, France at times, we're going to have those gusts upwards of 80 kilometers per hour.
- u37 Uh watching that higher chance of rain. Those areas of flooding isolated for some substantial though uh as we get back toward parts of Portugal and Spain as I've been highlighting. And temperatures, yeah, we get some variations depending on where you are, but for the most part, I'm not seeing like this cold weather outbreak or this massive warmup.
- u38 the next couple days generally holding steady. So, a busy pattern. So, I appreciate you leaving your comments. You're my weather watchers out there and others get to see them and read them and see what's going on where you are. Put your location and your weather in the comment section and I'll be going through those throughout the weekend. If you're in Portugal, Spain, and of course elsewhere, please be safe and have a good weekend ahead.
11:30 · Weather broadcast: "Tracking What's Next" storm forecast · A still from a weather video shows a man in a checkered button-up shirt standing at the left in front of a large blue screen. The screen, headed "Tracking What's Next," lists four forecast points: a strengthening storm pattern, gusty winds with higher rain chance, isolated flooding, and steady temperatures.
This text is written with AI.
Placed in: Now